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2046 Global Internet Economy Outlook
On January 7, 2017, the Second New Economy Think Tank Conference sponsored by the Ali Research Institute was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Gao Hongbing, Vice President of Alibaba Group and Dean of the Alibaba Research Institute released the “Digital Economy 2.0 Report - Farewell” Company, embrace platform.
The report believes that in the era of digital economy 1.0, multinational corporations took IT technology to the top. In the era of digital economy 2.0, a brand-new continent-platform economy was born based on DT technology. The employment relationship and the eight-hour work system are key words for the employment of multinational corporations. Self-employment and flexible employment are key words for employment in the platform economy.
Alibaba Research predicts that in the next 20 years, the eight-hour work system will be broken. China’s 400 million labor force will employ self-employed and free employment through the Internet, equivalent to 50% of China’s total labor force.
Due to the high barriers to entry and technical expertise, 80-90% of international trade is now controlled by multinational companies. The platform economy provides an infrastructure for international trade, breaking these barriers and allowing small businesses/individuals to participate in and benefit from global trade. In the next 30 years, 80% of global trade will be dominated by small businesses/individuals.
The following is a record of Gao Hongbing's speech:
Hello, everyone! Welcome everyone to the second session of the New Economy Think Tank Conference. The 79 tanks that everyone is in today are the main tanks that supplied energy to the entire electronics city. Thirty years ago, many people came to work in this factory. In that era, integrated circuits were the most advanced technologies. It is also our dream that we have come to such a big tank to open such a meeting. It is also because today Alibaba has continued to explore and join us in the context of global economic growth, constant technological change and various challenges. To communicate and study future solutions, it is more important to use vision and insight to find our future. Such a research discussion may not activate people's thinking if it is still in a hotel. So we spent a lot of money into the art district, combining the latest technology in this post-industrialization scenario, and combining everyone’s ideas to come together to see the future. This is the background for us to host this meeting today.
I worked in this factory 30 years ago, and entered the Ministry of Electronics Industry in 1991. At that time, the State Council leadership had a written instruction to study the impact of information technology on the 21st century. At that time, when discussing such a topic, I thought we would not be able to predict what would happen in the next 30 years, but we still need to foresee it. If we cannot predict the future better, we may lose the past and lose the future. This is the topic we want to discuss today.
My topic is to discuss "Farewell to the company, embrace the platform." Let's take a look at the various stages of the industrial revolution. Everyone in this map knows very well that both the first industrial revolution and the second industrial revolution have created human history. brilliant. We have now reached this point. In 2016, there were two very important events that were of great significance to us. They all occurred in March 2016. From March 9th to 15th, AlphaGo and Li Shishi were fighting. 2016 was a year when artificial intelligence became more industrialized. This is an event of technological innovation and innovation. At the same time, an incident occurred in March 2016, which was the first time that Alibaba's retail sales volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The "3 trillion yuan" figure can be compared to Wal-Mart, the largest retail system in the traditional industrial economy. Various small and medium-sized enterprises connected by Internet organizations can use the Internet platform to realize a transaction volume of RMB 3 trillion. We can foresee the future, even without using 2020, the total retail sales volume of Ali will double to 6 trillion RMB. However, we know that the growth of industrial retail sales has been negative growth. One is the aggregation of technological and original industrialization represented by the United States, and the other is the continuous development of technology in countries such as China, which has developed and applied in the countries of the Internet community.
Both of these events are of particular significance. One is the industrialization of technological innovation with the United States as the leader. One is that technological innovation represented by China has entered into the application of technology. Technology applications have further promoted technological innovation, leading to the formation of two digital economic powerhouses, China and the United States. Each of them has its own characteristics and representative companies. They all constitute a scenario for the development of the digital economy on different levels. We should see the great significance behind these two nodes.
In 1946, Shockley first invented the tantalum transistor, and later formed what we call today the semiconductor industry computing revolution, which led to the invention and development of personal computers. In 1969 and 1973, the appearance of ARPANET's invention and TCP IP made such technology continuously distributed and infiltrated. The first information revolution was based on information technology. Then the second information revolution took the Internet as a platform, and cloud computing, big data, especially the mobile Internet as a platform for the new platform economy. It is not the simple development of the original industrial economic structure, but the shaping of a new industrial organization and a new economic form.
The first time there was a very big difference between the second information revolution. In 1998, the US Department of Commerce issued the first “reported digital economy” research report, which fully described the impact of information technology on various aspects of economic society at that time. . What we are discussing today is that with the further development of using cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence, creating a brand-new digital economy has created a huge watershed, namely the era of the development of digital economy 2.0.
In comparison, the digital economy 1.0 continues to use ERP and CRM in the value of the traditional industrial economy to help government agencies and economic and social organizations improve their effectiveness. However, today's digital economy produces many platform-based economies with new logic. New ways of operating shape the future.
We see that the new digital economy is driven by data. The traditional 1.0 digital era is driven by digitization. In the era of 1.0, the digital economy continued to help strong people to develop, resulting in polarization between rich and poor. However, the Internet has distributed the entire computing resources and social resources to the entire network application, allowing individuals to rise up. Therefore, the entire digital economy 2.0 has a strong popularity. Regardless of the rural e-commerce, Internet finance, logistics and other aspects, we see everyone's economy, business for everyone, and finance for everyone. Therefore, the universalization of the Internet will become the main logic and melody of the digital economy 2.0.
In the era of industrial economy, there are 2 million taxi drivers in the travel industry. According to data disclosed today, more than 15 million registered drivers have been registered. In other words, a larger open system has mobilized more social resources to participate, resulting in a large-scale collaborative system. We look at express logistics, and the postal era has reached an unprecedented scale of 1 billion pieces. Today, we saw the entire e-commerce-driven parcels reach 30 billion. Internet distributed computing has revolutionized the entire business organization. In the financial sector, the peak value of the bank card payment transaction is 15,000 pens per second, while the double 11 Alipay transaction once reached 120,000 pens per second, and this record is doubled every year. The participation of more people and the entry of more commercial entities have led to the emergence of the global platform-wide economic system interconnection and led to the large-scale application of real-world business intelligence systems.
We further see that if there has been little overlap between the industrial economy and the digital economy of the information economy in the past, then there is now an overlap between the beginning and end of the sentence. Therefore, from the perspective of the traditional industrial economy, they say that they are challenged by the digital economy and need to be treated fairly. This is the view of traditional economic people. However, as the technology penetrates and evolves, the platform further develops, and the digital economy cake will do more and more, and more traditional economies will further digitize and move toward digital economy. We see that the yellow part and the deep yellow part are all new real economy. We have seen that whether it is dropping a taxi or Taobao, using a bit value network to create a new real economy by calling atomic cargo shipments or transactions.
There is now a lot of debate about the real economy and the virtual economy. The real economy is divided into old and new, and the virtual economy is totally a bubble. The traditionally called old real economy, which is armed with digital technology and the Internet, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, is called the new real economy. It is an inevitable trend that the new real economy will replace the old real economy. How we embrace such a new future is what we all need to think about.
We tried to draw a structure for the entire digital economy 2.0. We have found that an infrastructure has been formed on the ground floor, which is today's technology, and today's technology politics has become an infrastructure, and various data have been formed on the cloud network. Data was almost absent from the industrial economy in the past. However, today's data has become a major factor in the entire economic activity. Its value will exceed oil and land, and it will use data values to define land values and oil prices. This is the significance of data for us.
Above the underlying support system, it is commercial operation, economic development, and social life is undergoing a whole new change. Ali proposed "Five New and One Leveling", which is based on the Internet's big data platform to produce a whole new digital economy and digital society. Today's economic structure is undergoing tremendous changes. This change is centered on the Internet, and an economic system based on cloud computing and big data is present.
For example, everyone can observe the entire evolution and fission process of Ali's big Taobao system. When Taobao was established in 2003, there was basically no transaction. In 2006, it completed a scale of 10 billion yuan. In 2008, it broke through 100 billion for the first time, and exceeded 1 trillion in 2012. By this year we knew that we had exceeded 3 trillion in 2016. Will it keep growing up? Will it reach 10 trillion, 20 trillion? What kind of existence will it take? When we discussed e-commerce in 1997, we never thought of such a large ecosystem. This organization was constantly driven by the market. Alibaba is only one of the participants, with 10 million businesses, hundreds of thousands of service providers, and a large number of consumers influencing the ecosystem's growth, evolution, and prosperity. Of course, bringing many problems requires us to use more innovative management ideas to solve, rather than using the 19th century ideas.
In such a development process, we have to look at how to build an eWTP platform that can more effectively serve small and medium-sized enterprises, serve 2 billion consumers, truly make sense, and use a mobile phone to complete global buying and global use. Platform to sell, a platform that uses computing and data to help everyone have a better life. With the evolution of the system, there are various problems that need to be solved together in the think tank organization. We must use 2046 thinking to solve it, and not use 19th century thinking to solve it.
We have found that the development of the platform economy has formed many important elements. It is data-driven, platform-supported, open-ended, collaborative on a large scale, shared economy, and inclusive.
We can see a very important factor in the development of the platform economy, and tremendous changes have taken place in the organizational division and collaboration system. It has been a miracle to be able to organize 100 people to carry on handicraft in the past in the manual era. By the time of the factory, 1,000 people. Multinational companies can complete one million artificial business organizations. In the era of platform economy today, taking Taobao as an example, it can already absorb more than 30 million jobs and jobs. In the future there will be a larger scale organization.
The Ali Taobao platform has 8,000 employees, and the platform service provider is 100,000, the public review is 100,000, the logistics is 3 million, the consumer is nearly 500 million, and the online business is tens of millions. The influx and cooperation of various entities have formed many-to-many collaborations, and continue to create new values brought about by the division of labor.
What is the platform economy in the end? Everyone says that Internet companies are a platform economy. So is a traditional enterprise a platform economy? Our research found that a large number of Internet companies are forming platform economies.
The first category is a purely original Internet platform economy. Basically, it is digital content and digital trade, or they are basically not related to atomic things, such as movies, music, games, and other platforms. We see another category, like drip cars and Taobao, which combine bit networks with physical economy to form a new economy. The top left of this figure is this type. At the bottom left of the graph, like Apple, Microsoft is a representative company of the traditional digital economy 1.0, and today they have successfully turned to the digital economy 2.0. After Apple launched the APP store, it created a platform economy. Microsoft is also rapidly transforming and promoting the platform of artificial intelligence.
We need to pay more attention to today's traditional multinational corporations. They are forming new platform economies internally. Companies such as GE, which integrates manufacturing interconnects and objects to form a platform, are equivalent to the Android system of the industrial economy. After this platform is established, it is open to service providers and developers in the society to form an industrial cloud development community. . GE is moving away from selling hardware products to selling platforms that use equipment. Traditional industrial and economic enterprises are turning to platform platforms today. Platformization is the main theme of the digital economy 2.0 era and will become an inevitable trend because he has larger scale, higher value, and higher organization. Today, The system's smart, interconnected technologies have made such a platform possible.
We found that on the day of December 23, 2016, the market value of the 10 largest platform economies exceeded the market value of the top 10 industrial economies. This is a historic turning point. There are 3 Chinese companies in the 10 major platform economies, 7 U.S. companies, and none of the traditional 10 multinational companies. Therefore, in the era of digital economy, China has the opportunity to create the future together with the United States. However, in the era of traditional industrial economy, China has no chance. We have reason to believe that vigorously developing the digital economy is an extremely important strategic deployment in China's economic strategy.
Imagine 2046. We will have several farewells, the first farewell - bid farewell to the company. In 2020, there will be a platform economy with more than RMB 6 trillion in transaction scale, and there will certainly be more than one trillion USD market capitalization platform economy.
In 2036, we have to bid farewell to the 8-hour work system. Since the industrial revolution, we have introduced a new work system, which is the eight-hour work system. We expect that 50% of the workforce will self-employed and some will be replaced by artificial intelligence. I believe that robotic researchers will produce artificial intelligence think tanks, and more basic research will be replaced by machines and data.
We will also bid farewell to general trade. Between the country and the country, and between the domestic provinces, it is no longer sufficient to support the development of this economy. Cross-border becomes a theme, the entire economy is linked together, business is linked together, and people's lives are linked to information. Therefore, we have to bid farewell to general trade, and 90% of the transactions are international trade led by multinational corporations. In the next 30 years, we will shift to the use of Internet platforms by SMEs to complete cross-border transactions and cross-border trade. An individual can sell his goods to the world through mobile phones, and the cross-border economy will further replace and upgrade general trade.
In the end we must say goodbye to 2016. We just finished the New Year's Day. There were many things happening before the New Year's Day 2016. There were positive and negative things, and all of them were uncertain. Our future is also uncertain. Why don’t we put ourselves first in 2046 to reexamine and examine tomorrow, reshape the development path, and rethink our generation’s lives. What is needed on earth and how to plan this world. We need to stand up to 2046. We need to promote business change and institutional change with new innovative thinking.
If everyone's employment is realized, why do we still need to go to the company to work, need the company's HR and CFO, and need the industrial and commercial registration system? If big data governance can solve the problem of information transparency and credit constraints between supply and demand, and the platform's data has already solved the governance system that the past industrial economy could not complete with the new economic system, then we need to use innovative development ideas to drive change. More need to use innovative 2046 to lead our future development.