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Online shopping will grow in the next five years.

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TECHNOLOGY CENTER

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Online shopping will grow in the next five years.

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By 2020, China’s total economic output will surely reach 1/5 of the world’s total economy.

   
By 2020, China’s 1.4 billion urban and rural residents will become the world’s largest and fastest growing consumer groups

   
By 2020, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents will increase from 22,000 in 2015 to 3.0 to 31,000.

   
By 2020, the total retail consumption of the whole society will increase from 30 trillion in 2015 to 60 trillion.

   
By 2020, online retailing will account for the proportion of total social retail merchandise, and conservative estimates will also increase 3 to 4 times from 2015's 13.3%.

   
By 2020, national consumption will become the locomotive that will lead China’s economic growth, and its conservative estimate will reach 60%, even reaching 70%.

   
In the next five years, what is the trend of China's economy? What power will grow the locomotive of economic growth? How much room for development is there for online shopping? On January 16, at the 2016 New Economy Think Tank Conference sponsored by the Alibaba Research Institute, Hu Angang, Dean of the National Institute of Tsinghua University, made a number of key predictions for the next five years.

   
Hu Angang and colleagues’ research estimates that by 2020, China’s total economic output will surely reach 1/5 of the world’s total economic output; the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents will increase from 22,000 in 2015 to 3.0 to 31,000; Total social retail merchandise consumption will increase from 30 trillion in 2015 to 60 trillion yuan; online retail sales will account for the proportion of total social retail merchandise, and conservative estimates will also increase by 3-4 times from 2015's 13.3%; universal consumption will become The locomotive leading China’s economic growth will have a conservative contribution rate of 60%, or even 70%.

   
Hu Angang said that by the year 2020, China will become the leader of the new economy in the future. China will become the world’s largest economy and consumer group. In the context of globalization, the role of “super buyers and super winners” in China is driving China’s economic development. At the same time, it will also drive the development of the world. At the same time, e-commerce companies including Alibaba are completing a linkage between 1.4 billion consumers never seen in human history and more than 8 billion consumers worldwide, maximizing consumer welfare.

   
I want to make a brief introduction to China's economy and consumption in 2020 today, and also to answer the last question of Ian Morris (American historian, Stanford University professor). Who leads the new economy? It must be China, of course, not just China. Because China is not only the world’s most populous country, it will also become the largest economy in the world and become the largest trading body in the world. At the same time, it will also become the world's largest consumer group, that is to say, super buyers. Under globalization, it is already a big buyer, a big winner, a super buyer and a super winner. This will not only drive China’s economic development, it will also drive the world’s development.

   
China's economic growth, in 2020, will generally maintain an economic growth rate of 6.5% to 7.0%. Looking at the status of China in the world economy, we have two methods to calculate.

   
In the past five years, China accounted for 9.2% of the world's total economy, which has increased to 14.4% last year. It is estimated that by 2020 it will have reached 20% of the world's total economy. If it is 6.5%, it may be left. If it is 7.0% already on the right, it will increase by 5.2%.

   
If we use the World Bank’s latest purchasing power parity calculation to calculate GDP, we will account for 14.4% of the world’s total economic output in the past five years and 17.2% in 2015. This is already the world’s largest economy. According to such a growth rate of 6.5% to 7.0%, by 2020, China's share of the world economy can still exceed 20%.

   
From this we can conclude that no matter which method is used, by 2020 we will be one-fifth of the world’s total economy. Of course, we also see that there are many uncertainties, including the uncertainty of economic growth. The second GDP growth index has a certain degree of uncertainty, which is about 3 percentage points and 1 percentage point. There is also a change in the exchange rate of the RMB against the U. The uncertainty of the currency change of the fourth US dollar itself. The general conclusion can be confidently stated that China will reach 1/5 of the world economy.

   
In the second aspect, the Chinese economy, we can call it China's economic giant, because we have already reached a level of 10 trillion US dollars, which has led us to greatly increase the income of the 1.4 billion Chinese people as a whole by 2020.

   
Let’s take a look. This growth trend is basically the same as the trend of economic growth rate, which is generally between 6.5% and 7.0%. This ensures that the per capita disposable income of our residents increases from 22,000 in 2015. By 3.0 to 31,000 in 2020, if we calculate by three people per household, we increase from 66,000 to 9.0 to 93,000, and approximately equal to approximately 15,000 US dollars. If calculated at current prices, it may be close to or likely to exceed the 100,000 mark by that time. As a result, China’s 1.4 billion urban and rural residents will become the world’s largest and fastest growing consumer group.

   
From this, we can see that the consumption of Chinese residents has entered a golden era, far exceeding the era of mass consumption after the United States and Western Europe after the Second World War. From the point of view of the economic growth of the three carriages, no matter from that point of view, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, consumption has become the largest engine, or the largest driving force. Then during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, we can still keep the growth of consumption above that of economic growth. We estimate that by 2015, the total retail consumption of the entire society will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time and reach 60 trillion yuan by 2020. In other words, China will double from the current 5 trillion yuan to about 10 trillion US dollars.

   
China's steady growth in maintaining economic growth will also promote the growth of China's consumer market, and thus promote the Chinese consumer market. We call it the four pillars. The first is the increase in income of Chinese residents, which has increased the huge potential for consumption. A market depends on two factors, the first of its growth rate, and the second of its size.

   
Secondly, as China enters the middle-income stage, especially as the high-income direction moves forward, new consumption growth points and new consumption patterns will appear, which will increase China’s consumption structure. Then China’s Engel coefficient will continue to decline. The Engel's coefficient is already close to 30%. This signal tells us that China will form a huge consumption in education, medical care, culture, old-age care, and tourism. It shows what we call information consumption, green consumption, fashion consumption, and quality consumption, especially in rural areas. Consumption. Take tourism as an example. Last year, China's tourism alone had more than 4 billion person-time trips. We conservatively estimate that there will be more than 6.5 billion person-times of domestic travel in 2020. This consumption is very relevant to this stage of development.

   
The third aspect is the way of consumption, showing diversification, personalization, and especially networking, and thus tapping our consumption boundary, especially online consumption. Last year, the total consumption has exceeded 4 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to social retailing. 13.3% of the total commodity weight. As this trend continues, the growth in online retail sales is conservatively estimated to increase by 3 to 4 times. I particularly emphasize conservative estimates because past research and predictions in this area have greatly underestimated the potential and capabilities of our Internet consumption.

   
The fourth point is that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the state proposed a series of inputs and expenditures related to public services. The consumption of public services and private consumption have formed an interactive relationship and have stimulated a new consumption pattern. .

   
In the end, I want to make a summary. In the future, China's development needs five major changes. It also requires two markets. First of all, China will become the world’s largest economy and trading body, making the consumption of all citizens the locomotive leading China’s economic growth, and its contribution rate is conservatively estimated to reach 60% or even reach 70 during the 13th Five-Year period. %. At the same time, it benefits from the "Internet Powerhouse" and the Big Data, Internet + Action Plan to help China complete the rapid shift from catch-up to innovation. In 1995, the relative difference between China's Internet users and the United States was 1,750 times. Today, we have greatly surpassed the United States as an innovator and leader in the era of the Internet and big data. We must continue to innovate and be creative, not only to lead China, but also to lead the world. This shift has been happening in the past 10 years. It is investment-driven, shifting to consumer channels, and shifting from industry to modern service industries. The most important thing is the concept, from the theory of the sovereignty of producers to the theory of consumer sovereignty, especially the huge consumer of 1.4 billion as the sovereignty, to improve their welfare, so that China may be able to successfully leapfrog the middle-income trap, stable, confident, It is also an innovative move from the middle-income stage to the high-income stage, making it even more affluent, more developed, and more innovative after 2020 or 2020.

   
We can see that today’s China’s Alibaba, or other e-commerce companies, are completing a link to connect more than 8 billion consumers in the world’s 1.4 billion consumer world, not only in China’s history. The maximization of the welfare of 1.4 billion consumers will also maximize the welfare of the world’s 8 billion consumers, which is a real contribution to humanity. thank you all!