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China's Top 10 Economic Trends in the Next 5 Years
On January 16, 2016, the “2016 New Economy Think Tank Conference” with the theme of “New Economy, New Governance, and New Think Tank” opened in Beijing. At the meeting, “Towards 2020: Ten Predictions for the New Economy” was formally announced. Ten predictions made by Bain, Boston Consulting, National Information Center, and Zhejiang University were finalists.
Judging from the final results, online retailing, cross-border e-commerce, and sharing economy have become bright spots. Think tanks are generally optimistic about the future prospects of China's e-commerce market, and believe that the Internet will generate manufacturing, circulation, rural and social forms in China. Significant influence.
“The new economy is becoming a new growth engine for the global economy, and think-tank institutions play an important role as promoters and observers in the development of the new economy. The release of this ten-point forecast will have an important impact on the future development of the new economy.” Ms. Li Peijiao, a member of the jury of the Top Ten Forecasters and editor-in-chief of the China Business News, said.
The following are the top ten forecasts for the new economy:
1. Bain Company: The scale of China's online retail market will reach 10 trillion yuan in 2020, and “buying the world” will become a reality.
Bain Company predicts that by 2020, the online penetration rate of China's retail market will double to 22%, and the market scale will total 10 trillion yuan. Maternal and child supplies have the strongest momentum, and the third- and fourth-tier cities will become the main driving force for growth. At the same time, mobile Internet e-commerce will develop into a backbone, occupying about 70% of the online retail share. The rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce is expected to reach a total of 1 trillion in 2020, making "buying the world" a reality.
2. Boston Consulting: Consumption of horses is going strong, China's consumption will increase by 2.3 trillion US dollars over the next five years, and nearly half will come from online consumption.
The Boston Consulting Group estimates that even if China's GDP growth slows to 5.5%, by 2020, China’s consumer market will still expand by about half, reaching a scale of 6.5 trillion US dollars. The $2.3 trillion increase in the consumer market over the next five years is equivalent to 1.3 times the current consumer market in Germany or the United Kingdom, with 42% of the increase in consumption coming from online spending.
3. DCCI: The market value of 3D printing will break 100 billion in 2020 and the family will become mainstream
DCCI expects that with the maturity of 3D printing technology and the increasing demand for personalization, by 2020 China's 3D printing market will reach 100 billion scale, reaching the whole field, including life care, aerospace and energy manufacturing. In addition, the decline in manufacturing difficulty, the ease of access to manufacturing materials, and the diversification of manufacturing requirements will drive homes into the most common units of manufacturing.
4. China International Economic Exchange Center: “e International Trade” grows rapidly and occupies a significant share of world trade
The China International Economic Exchange Center believes that the future international trade pattern will undergo a revolutionary change: past general trade, processing trade, small-scale border trade, and purchasing trade will change shape due to the rapid growth of “e international trade”. The amount of "e international trade" will reach 30-40% of the world trade volume by 2025 or so.
5. Ali Institute: Cross-border e-commerce will account for 1/3 of China's foreign trade. The e-WTO will become a new platform and new mechanism for negotiations on international trade rules.
Alibaba Research predicts that with the rapid development of China’s Internet economy and cross-border e-commerce, China’s cross-border e-commerce will account for one-third of China’s foreign trade in 2020, helping China to further develop its “world factory” into a “global Distribution center for goods and services." At the same time, the e-WTO concept will innovate the research and formulation of future international trade rules, help global small businesses and young people to develop better, and promote the establishment of a free and open, inclusive and efficient global e-commerce market.
6. China Rural Development Research Institute of Zhejiang University: In 2020, the Internet will fully penetrate all areas of China's rural areas.
The China Rural Development Institute of Zhejiang University believes that by 2020, the Internet will be universally popularized and penetrated into all areas of rural areas in China. Farmers can easily purchase global products at home, sell their products to the world, and enjoy better Medical and health services. Urban and rural residents are fully connected, customize their favorite agricultural products and achieve transparent production.
7. Institute of Information Society: In 2020, China's "soft law" system centered on platform governance was initially formed, becoming a standard that the industry has complied with.
The Information Society Research Institute predicts that in 2020, China's "soft law" system with the core of platform governance will formally become the norm for the industry to comply with. The network specification has become an independent field that is independent of statutory law and has played an increasingly important role; the government has also begun to cooperate with the platform and carried out collaborative innovations in supervision, which has transformed the entire social structure into a network-based society.
8. Information Research Department of the National Information Center: In 2020, the sharing economy will enter the “all-shared era” where everyone can participate and everything can be shared.
The Information Research Department of the National Information Center believes that, with broadband networks covering urban and rural areas, by 2020, from young people to middle-aged and elderly people, from urban residents to rural residents, from low- and middle-income groups to high-income groups, everyone can participate. Sharing economy; from intangible products to tangible products, from consumer products to production factors, and from domestic resources to foreign resources, everything can be included in the scope of the shared economy. By 2020, about 10 Big Mac shared economic platforms will emerge in the fields of transportation, housing, living services, education and training, medical care, and production crowdsourcing.
9. The 50-member Forum on Information Society and the Center for Chinese Society and Development at Peking University: The digitization of human behavior will become a new link in the human society, and the era of transparency and privacy will reappear.
The infiltration of sensors has enabled the social bonds defined by the division of labor, organization, credit, and privacy in the industrial era to be gradually marked with data, thus directly affecting the construction of circles, platforms, and ecology. This makes the social ties no longer based on individual recommendations, organizational evaluation, and relationship-driven. Instead, it forms a digital data feature that builds up over time. In this way, the organizational model, privacy definition, and credit definition in the industrial era will all be replaced by digitalized digital features. Perhaps, humans will once again enter an era of “transparent” and privacy-free after the era of industrialization.
10, network intelligence cool: social measurement, cognitive experiment instead of sampling statistics, gave birth to the great changes in multidisciplinary basic theory
The cognitive science proposed by the Sloan Report in 1978 has undergone more than 30 years of development and has now become a general knowledge base for such disciplines as psychology, sociology, economics, and communications. The research methods based on social measurement and cognitive experiments will fully replace the traditional method of sampling statistics, which will lead to great changes in the basic theories of sociology and economics.