Finance represents the economic vitality of a country. According to the People's Bank of China survey of more than 3,000 bankers in the fourth quarter of 2018, 66.8% of bankers considered the current macro economy to be "normal". In the first quarter of 2019, the banker's macroeconomic hot-expectation index was 37.8%, which was 3.4 percentage points higher than this quarter.
At this time, the global economy is also experiencing a turning point in liquidity and fiscal policy. Interest rate risk and exchange rate risk are the main types of risks in the current world economy. The risk of fluctuations in global financial markets is expected to increase. Therefore, after a decade of prosperity and a decade of crisis and depression, we will face another 10 years of global economic and financial adjustment.
The global economy is expected to continue to be "lightweight." For example, the proportion of service industries in emerging economies and Europe continues to rise, and the overall economy of developed countries continues to "mitigate." As a result, the share of the world's service industry has increased and the share of the manufacturing industry has fallen. By then, asset-lightness will become increasingly important. At the same time, there are fewer and fewer investors willing to hold heavy capital, and investment declines, leading to economic growth mainly driven by consumption. These factors are interconnected. This is a very noteworthy change in the global economic structure over the next decade. The skin-packed products are mainly facing the small commodities of the supermarket, cold beef steak, fresh seafood such as salmon and squid, and cooked food, which are a good factor for the skin-packing industry.
For example, people no longer need more foreign products than they did when globalization expanded rapidly. Instead, they consume more domestic service products. In the United States, millennials are reluctant to buy a car or a house. Demand for materials has declined, while demand for services such as tourism and restaurants has increased.
On the other hand, globalization has been accelerating over the past 30 years. Globalization may slow down in the next 10 years and may not necessarily reverse, but it will change dramatically. The United States is expected to enter a recession or to slow down from this year. At the same time, the UK's GDP growth rate will decline by 1% each year in the next 10 years, while the EU will decline by 1/3 percentage point in the super emerging industries. Japan is still in the same place, and China and the United States have entered the world leader.
The Japan Center For Economic Research also recently released a report measuring the expected economic growth rates of 11 major Asian countries by 2030 in nominal GDP per capita. The report shows these The wealth of the people of the country. By 2023, Malaysia is expected to rank among high-income countries with a per capita nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $ 11,999, while China will surpass this level by 2025. In addition, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are expected to rank among high- and middle-income countries by 2030 (with a per capita nominal GDP of more than $ 4,000).
Data show that China ’s economic growth has contributed nearly 30% to the world ’s economic growth (based on estimates by the International Monetary Fund) and remains the largest contributor to global economic growth. In 2018, China's GDP exceeded 90 trillion yuan (US $ 13.6 trillion), an increase of nearly 8 trillion yuan over the previous year, ranking second in the world and accounting for about 16% of the global economy. China's skin-packing industry also contributes to China and the world's economic development.
As the weak dollar cycle begins after the Fed decelerates, the U.S. economy reaches its peak, and with the favorable market policies in China, more global foreign capital returns and asset revaluation logic may emerge. China is expected to remain bullish on RMB assets. With the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process, it is expected that by 2025, the RMB will play a 10% role in international currency reserves. China will also transform from a financial power to a financial power. For example, the RMB can be directly used externally and the demand for foreign exchange reserves Will definitely decrease.
Bloomberg cited a well-known report from the World Economic Forum. By this time in 2020, China will officially enter the ranks of the world's innovative countries, and China's digital economy will lead the world. In the Internet field, China has achieved the number one position in the world, and competition in Japan, Europe and other countries will become increasingly fierce. Even Goldman Sachs, which has always been "cold", believes that the Chinese economy will enter a new stage, become more and more powerful, and the future lifestyle of the Chinese people may be reshaped.
In the context of huge changes in the global economy over the next 10 years, when China's per capita GDP grows to about $ 10,000, changes in these economic trends will affect future manufacturing, future asset preferences, future business structures, and international capital flows. . Will have a huge impact. This will surely bring another boom in China's skin-packing industry. We will wait and see.