REVIEW:

   By 2020, China's GDP will certainly reach 1/5 of the total world economy

   in 2020, 1.4 billion Chinese urban and rural residents to become the world's largest, fastest-growing consumer group

   in 2020, Chinese residents' per capita disposable people Revenue will increase from 22,000 in 2015 to 3.0 to 31,000

   to 2020. The total retail consumption of the whole society will increase from 30 trillion in 2015 to 60 trillion

   to 2020. The proportion of online retailing in the total social retailing goods, Conservative estimates will also increase 3 to 4 times from 13.3% in 2015.

   By 2020, national consumption will become the locomotive leading China's economic growth, and its contribution rate will be conservatively estimated to reach 60%, or even 70% in the

   next 5 years. China How is the economy going? What forces will grow the locomotive of economic growth? How much room for development for online shopping consumption? On January 16, at the 2016 New Economic Think Tank Conference hosted by the Alibaba Research Institute, Hu Angang, Dean of the National Institute for National Conditions at Tsinghua University, made a number of key predictions for the next five years.

   Research by Hu Angang and colleagues estimates that by 2020, China's economic aggregate will certainly reach 1/5 of the world's economic aggregate; the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents will rise from 22,000 in 2015 to 3.0 to 31,000; The total retail merchandise consumption of the whole society will increase from 30 trillion in 2015 to 60 trillion; the proportion of online retail in the total retail merchandise of the whole society will be conservatively estimated to increase by 3 to 4 times from 13.3% in 2015; national consumption will The locomotive that leads China's economic growth will conservatively contribute 60%, or even 70%.

   Hu Angang said that by 2020, China will become the leader of the new economy. China will become the world ’s largest economy and consumer group. In the context of globalization, China ’s role as a “super buyer and super winner” is driving China ’s economic development. At the same time, it will also drive the development of the world. At the same time, e-commerce, including Alibaba, is completing a link between 1.4 billion consumers who have never been seen in human history and more than 8 billion consumers in the world, maximizing consumer welfare.

   I want to make a brief introduction to China's economy and consumption in 2020 today, and also answer the last question of Ian Morris (American historian and professor at Stanford University). Who leads the new economy? It must be Chinese, of course not just China. Because China is not only the most populous country in the world, it will also become the world's largest economy and the world's largest trading body. At the same time, it will also become the world's largest consumer group, that is, super buyers. Under the conditions of globalization, they are already big buyers, big winners, super buyers, and super winners. This will not only drive China's economic development, but also drive world development.

   China's economic growth will generally maintain an economic growth rate of 6.5% to 7.0% in 2020. If we look at China's position in the world economy, there are two ways to calculate it.

   China accounted for 9.2% of the world's total economy in the past five years, rising to 14.4% last year, and it is estimated that by 2020, it will roughly reach 20% of the world's total economy. If it is 6.5%, it may be on the left. If 7.0% is already on the right, it will increase by 5.2%.

   If we use the latest purchasing power parity of the World Bank to calculate GDP, it has increased from 14.4% of the total world economy in the past five years to 17.2% by 2015, and is already the world ’s largest economy. According to such a growth rate of 6.5% to 7.0%, by 2020, China's share of the world economy can still exceed 20%.

   From this we can conclude that no matter which method is used for calculation, we will be one fifth of the total world economy by 2020. Of course, we also see a lot of uncertainty, including economic growth uncertainty. The second GDP growth index has a certain degree of uncertainty, about 3 percentage points and 1 percentage point. There are also changes in the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar. The uncertainty of the currency change of the fourth dollar itself. The overall conclusion can be said with confidence that China will reach 1/5 of the total world economy.

   In the second aspect, the Chinese economy, we can call it China's economic giant, because we have reached the $ 10 trillion level, which will drive us to a substantial increase in the income of 1.4 billion Chinese residents by 2020.

   Let ’s take a look. This growth trend is basically the same as the trend of economic growth rate, which is generally between 6.5% and 7.0%, so as to ensure that the per capita disposable income of our national residents will rise from 22,000 in 2015. From 30,000 to 31,000 by 2020, if it is calculated by 3 people per family, it will rise from 66,000 to 93,000 to 93,000, which is roughly equivalent to about 15,000 US dollars. If it is calculated at current prices, it may be close to, or it may exceed, the 100,000 mark. Therefore, China's 1.4 billion urban and rural residents will become the world's largest and fastest growing consumer group.

   From this we can see that the consumption of Chinese residents has entered the golden age, far exceeding the era of mass consumption in the United States and Western Europe after the Second World War. From the perspective of the three horse-drawn carriages of economic growth, no matter from which perspective, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, consumption has become the largest engine, or the largest driving force. Then during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, we can still keep the growth of consumption higher than that of economic growth. We estimate that by 2015, the total retail consumption of the whole society will reach 30 trillion for the first time, and by 2020 it will reach 60 trillion. In other words, China will double from the current 5 trillion yuan to 10 trillion US dollars.

   The steady development of China's economic growth will also promote the growth of China's consumer market, which in turn will promote the Chinese consumer market, which we call the four pillars. The first is the increase in Chinese residents' income, which has increased the huge consumption potential. A market depends on two factors, the first is its growth rate and the second is its size.

   Second, when China enters the upper-middle income stage, especially when it is moving towards high income, new consumption growth points and new consumption patterns appear, which has improved China's consumption structure. Then China ’s Engel coefficient continues to decline, and farmers ’ The Engel coefficient is close to 30%. This signal tells us that China will form huge consumption in education, medical care, culture, pensions, and tourism. Consumption. Take tourism consumption as an example. Last year, China's domestic tourism alone exceeded 4 billion. We conservatively estimate that China's domestic tourism will exceed 6.5 billion in 2020. This consumption is very relevant to this stage of development.

   The third aspect is the way of consumption, showing diversification, personalization, especially network, thereby digging our consumption boundaries, especially online consumption. Last year, total consumption has exceeded 4 trillion, equivalent to social retail The proportion of total merchandise was 13.3%. Following this trend, the total consumption of online retail sales has increased by a conservative estimate of three to four times. I especially emphasize conservative estimates because previous research and forecasts in this area have greatly underestimated the potential and capabilities of our online consumption.

   The fourth point is that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the state proposed a series of inputs and expenditures on public services. The consumption of public services and the consumption of private individuals formed an interactive relationship and stimulated a new consumption pattern .

   In the end, I want to make a summary. The development of China in the future requires five major changes, and two markets are more needed. First of all, China will become the world's largest economy and trade body, so that national consumption will become the locomotive that leads China's economic growth, and its contribution rate is conservatively estimated to reach 60% or even 70 during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. %. At the same time, benefiting from the "Internet power" and big data, the Internet + action plan, to help China complete the rapid transformation from catch-up to innovation. In 1995, the relative difference between Chinese Internet users and the United States was 1750 times. Today we have greatly surpassed the United States and become innovators and leaders in this era of the Internet and the era of big data. We must continue to innovate and be brave enough to lead not only China but also the world. This change has occurred continuously in the past 10 years, that is, investment-led driving, transformation to consumption channels, and transformation from industry to modern service industry. The most important is in the concept, from the theory of producer sovereignty to the theory of consumer sovereignty, especially with the huge consumers such as 1.4 billion, to improve their welfare, so that China may successfully cross the middle income trap, be stable, confident, It is also an innovative move from the middle-income stage to the high-income stage, making 2020, or after 2020, richer, more developed, and more innovative.

   We can see that today's China, Alibaba, and other e-commerce companies, are completing a link between 1.4 billion consumers and more than 8 billion consumers in the world that has never been seen in human history. The maximization of the welfare of 1.4 billion consumers will also drive the maximization of the welfare of 8 billion consumers worldwide. This is a real contribution to humanity. thank you all!