On January 16, 2016, the "2016 New Economy Think Tank Conference" with the theme of "New Economy · New Governance · New Think Tank" opened in Beijing. At the meeting, "Towards 2020: Top Ten Forecasts for the New Economy" was officially released. Ten predictions made by Bain, Boston Consulting, National Information Center, Zhejiang University and other institutions were shortlisted.

　　Judging from the finalists, online retail, cross-border e-commerce, and the sharing economy have become bright spots. Think tanks are generally optimistic about the future prospects of the Chinese e-commerce market, and believe that the Internet will have an impact on China's manufacturing, distribution, rural, and social formations. Significant influence.

　　"The new economy is becoming a new growth engine for the global economy, and think tanks are playing an important role as an enabler and observer in the development of the new economy. The release of this top ten forecast will have an important impact on the development of the new economy in the future." Ms. Li Peiyu, member of the judging panel of the top ten predictions and chief editor of China Business Daily, said.

　　The following are the top ten predictions of the new economy: 1. Bain & Company: The scale of China's online retail market will reach 10 trillion yuan in 2020, and "buy all over the world" will become a reality.　　Bain & Company predicts that by 2020, Online penetration will double to 22% and the market size will total 10 trillion yuan. Mother and baby products have the strongest momentum, and third and fourth tier cities will become the main driving force for growth. At the same time, mobile Internet e-commerce will develop into a backbone force, accounting for about 70% of online retail shares. The rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan in 2020, making "buying all over the world" a reality. 　　2. Boston Consulting: Consumption buggy is in force. In the next five years, China ’s consumption increase will reach 2.3 trillion US dollars. Nearly half of this comes from online consumption.　　Boston Consulting estimates that even if China ’s GDP growth slows to 5.5%, by 2020, China The consumer market will still expand by about half, reaching a size of $ 6.5 trillion. In the next five years, the 2.3 trillion US dollars increase in the consumer market is equivalent to 1.3 times the current German or British consumer market, of which 42% of the consumption increase comes from online consumption. 　　3. DCCI: The market value of 3D printing will exceed 100 billion in 2020, making homes into the mainstream

　　









　　DCCI predicts that with the maturity of 3D printing technology and the increase in personalized demand, China's 3D printing market will reach 100 billion yuan by 2020, reaching all fields, including life medical, aerospace and energy manufacturing. In addition, the decline in manufacturing difficulty, the low availability of manufacturing materials, and the diversification of manufacturing requirements will make households the most common unit of manufacturing.

　　4. China International Economic Exchange Center: “e International Trade” is growing rapidly and occupies a significant share of world trade.

　　China International Economic Exchange Center believes that the future of international trade will undergo revolutionary changes: general trade, processing trade, small borders in the past Trade and procurement trade will change shape due to the rapid growth of "e International Trade". "E international trade" will reach 30-40% of world trade by 2025.

　　5, Ali Institute: Cross-border electricity supplier China's foreign trade will account for 1/3, will become a new platform for e-WTO international trade rules negotiations and study new mechanisms

　　Ali Research Institute predicted that as China's Internet economy and the rapid cross-border e-commerce Development, China's cross-border e-commerce will account for one third of China's foreign trade in 2020, helping China to further develop from a "world factory" into a "global goods and service distribution center." At the same time, the e-WTO concept will innovate the research and formulation of future international trade rules, help global small businesses and young people to develop better, and promote the establishment of a free, open, inclusive and efficient global e-commerce market. 6. China Rural Development Institute of Zhejiang University: In 2020, the Internet will fully penetrate all areas of rural China.    Zhejiang University's China Rural Development Institute believes that by 2020, the Internet will be fully popularized and penetrated into all areas of rural areas in China. Farmers You can easily buy global products at home, sell your products to the world, and enjoy better medical and health services. Urban and rural residents are fully connected, customize their favorite agricultural products and achieve transparent production. 　　7. Research Institute of Information Society: In 2020, China's "soft law" system with platform governance as its core was initially formed, and became a norm commonly followed by the industry.

　　





　　The Institute of Information Society predicts that in 2020, China's "soft law" system with platform governance at its core will be preliminarily formed, and will become a norm commonly followed by the industry. Network norms have become an independent field independent of statute law, playing an increasingly important role; the government has also begun to cooperate with the platform to carry out collaborative innovation in supervision, thereby transforming the entire social structure into a network-based society. 8. Information Research Department of National Information Center: In 2020, the sharing economy will enter an all-sharing era where everyone can participate and everything can be shared. According to the　　information department of National Information Center, with the comprehensive coverage of urban and rural areas by broadband networks, In 2020, from young people to middle-aged and elderly people, from urban residents to rural residents, from low-income groups to high-income groups, everyone can participate in the sharing economy; from intangible products to tangible products, from consumer products to production factors, from From domestic resources to foreign resources, everything can be included in the scope of the sharing economy. By 2020, there will be about 10 giant sharing economy platforms in the fields of transportation, housing, living services, education and training, medical care, and crowdsourcing. 9. The Forum of 50 People in the Information Society and the China Center for Social and Development Research, Peking University: The dataization of human behavior will become a new bond for human society. The era of transparency and privacy will re-emerge　　the penetration of sensors, and let the industrialization era through division of labor, organization, The social bonds defined by credit and privacy are gradually branded with data, which will directly affect the construction of circles, platforms and ecology. This allows social ties to no longer be based on individual recommendations, organizational evaluations, and relationship-driven foundations, but to form a cumulative digital feature buildup over time. In this way, the organizational model, privacy definition, and credit definition in the industrial era will be replaced by the digital feature construction of data. Perhaps humanity will once again enter the era of "transparency" and no privacy after the era of industrialization. 10. Cyber-cool: Social measurement and cognitive experiments replaced sampling statistics,　　leading to a huge change in the basic theories of multi-disciplines . The cognitive science proposed by the Sloan Report in 1978 has undergone more than 30 years of development and has now become a psychology, sociology, General knowledge basis in economics, communication and other disciplines. The research methods based on social measurement and cognitive experiments will comprehensively replace the traditional methods of sampling statistics, which will then lead to great changes in the basic theories of sociology and economics.